exceedance probability Actually, nobody knows that when and where an earthquake with magnitude ⥠M will occur with probability 1% or more. Differences in the way of presenting the seismic hazard (either as ground acceleration or intensity, constant value zones, contours … Probable Loss (PL): Earthquake loss to the building systems that has a specified probability of being exceeded in a specific time period. The solution is the exceedance probability of our standard value expressed as a per cent, with 1.00 being equivalent to a 100 per cent probability. This is considered a “rare event”. Modeling Fundamentals: Combining Loss Metrics Probabilistic earthquake acceleration and velocity With all the variables in place, perform the addition and division functions required of the formula. c. This equates to a _____ probability of exceedance in _____ years. PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD METHODOLOGY M7.6 every 250yrs- 0.004 event/yr. It is not a reciprocal of the annual probability of exceedance, Pa, however it can be approximated with 1 Pa at higher return periods (T > 100 years). A 10-year event has a probability of 0.1 or 10% of being equaled or exceeded in any one year (exceedance probability = 1/return period = 1/100). Earthquake ts = return period = 450 years. EU are next reviewed, in particular those in the more earthquake prone areas. Poisson occurrences - University of British Columbia
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